The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to meet tomorrow to deliberate on the nation’s monetary policy. The central bank will subsequently issue a statement detailing the outcomes of the meeting through a press release.
Previous Monetary Policy Decisions
In its last meeting held on September 14, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 22 percent. This decision was influenced by the latest inflation outturn, which showed a continuing declining trend in inflation from its peak of 38 percent in May to 27.4 percent in August 2023.
Market Expectations for the Upcoming Meeting
Ahead of the meeting, market analysts have expressed their expectations regarding the policy rate. A recent survey conducted by Topline Securities revealed that 70 percent of participants expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 22 percent.
Meanwhile, 16 percent of participants anticipate a decrease in the policy rate by 25-100 basis points (bps), and 11 percent expect it to drop by more than 100bps. Only a small fraction of participants, 3 percent, expect the policy rate to increase by more than 100bps, while none of the participants foresee an increase by 25-100bps.
The announcement of the monetary policy tomorrow is eagerly awaited by stakeholders, as it will provide insights into the country’s economic direction amidst fluctuating inflation rates.