Fuel prices in Pakistan are projected to experience a substantial decrease of up to Rs. 18 per liter. This forecast is based on the recent depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) by 1 percent to 280.5/$ from the previous fortnightly average of 277/$. Additionally, the prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, and Arablight have seen a decline of approximately 4.3 percent, 3.2 percent, and 4.2 percent respectively compared to the previous week.
This anticipated reduction follows a series of price adjustments in the recent past. The interim government had previously reduced the price of petrol by Rs. 40 per liter and the price of high-speed diesel by Rs. 15 during the last fortnightly review of petroleum prices.
This was largely due to the Pakistani Rupee’s 28-day winning streak against the US dollar and the international rates of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) and Motor Spirit (MS) falling by $1.3-3.5 per barrel in the preceding week.
Between August 15 and September 15, petrol and high-speed diesel prices had escalated by Rs. 58.43 and Rs. 55.83 per liter respectively, reaching a record high of Rs. 331-333 per liter at retail until September 30. However, with the PKR’s significant recovery from below 300 to above 278, fuel and diesel rates were subsequently reduced by Rs. 52 and Rs. 26 per liter respectively on October 1st and 15th.
The current estimates suggest that the per liter rates for High-Speed Diesel could fall by Rs. 5-6 and MS Petrol by Rs. 17-18 per liter on October 31. If the international prices and the resurgent Pakistani Rupee continue their positive trend, local petrol and diesel prices could potentially decrease to Rs. 297-298 and Rs. 265-266 respectively in the next fortnightly prices effective from October 31, 2023.
These projections are based on actual costs in the first 12 days of the current fortnight and estimates for the remaining period. If these predictions hold, this would mark the third consecutive decrease in fuel rates after three successive hikes.
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