Argentina FIFA is favorite to win. The World Cup 2022 final while England are predicted to lose. Match Against them, economists correctly predicted the winners of the tournament in 2014 and 2018, according to the report. Bloomberg.
Joachim Clement, an investment analyst at an investment banking firm, stands by his World Cup outcome forecast he made before the sporting mega-event kicked off in Qatar in September.
However, he revealed he was “sweating profusely” while watching the nerve-wracking game between Saudi Arabia and Argentina during the World Cup group stage in which the former stunned football fans around the world by beating the latter. gave
To make such predictions, economists use a model based on four factors: GDP per capita, population size, culture and climate. According to this model, warm countries where sports can be played year-round perform best. are performers and have a large population that also likes football and a high GDP per capita rate.
The three major outliers in the economist’s model are China, India and the Netherlands.
“The Indians have decided to play cricket, God knows why, and the Chinese for some strange reason have really taken to it,” Clement said. Bloomberg.
He said that considering the relatively small population of the Netherlands, it had been “incredibly successful in football”.
The investment analyst said it was not his intention to develop a working forecasting model. In fact, he intended to sneer at economists who claim to “predict absolutely everything” by doing so.
Clement first predicted England’s loss to Argentina in September with a note in which he noted that the latter’s route to winning the FIFA trophy for the first time in 36 years included Spain’s defeat by Spain. Will be. The semi-finals Match.
In his note, however, the economist also said that forecasting the ongoing World Cup is more difficult than before as the tournament is being held in the winter season.
He revealed that the approach of making predictions about the collective value of the players in a team is not as reliable as looking at the underlying factors of its success.
“I’m a bit cautious about using the collective value of players because the Premier League has a lot of money and can pay a lot for players,” Clement said.
“The good news for England fans is that England are going to make it to the final. The bad news is that they are going to lose it.